Prabowo’s European Visit Reflects Balance Policy
Meetings with EU leaders in Brussels
On 13 July, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto arrived in Brussels, Belgium to meet with the country’s monarch, King Philippe, and the Belgian government. But the highlight was undoubtedly Prabowo’s meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa at the European Commission Headquarters in Brussels.
After nearly a decade of negotiations, Indonesia and the European Union (EU) are preparing to ratify the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA). The signing of the agreement is scheduled for the third quarter of 2025 in Jakarta, marking a new stage in economic cooperation between the two strategic partners.
The Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership (IEU-CEPA) provides Indonesia with significant economic benefits, including tariff exemptions for 80% of exports, which could increase Indonesian exports to Europe by more than 50% in the next 3-4 years.
The agreement strengthens the competitiveness of Indonesian goods compared to Vietnam and Malaysia, which already enjoy preferential access to the European market, while providing diversification of export destinations in the face of a potential 32% increase in US tariffs. In addition to trade benefits, the IEU-CEPA opens up greater opportunities for investment and cooperation in technology, education and green transformation, strengthening Indonesia’s position as a key economic partner for the EU in the ASEAN region. According to Ursula von der Leyen, after the ratification of the agreement, it will be easier for Indonesian citizens (WNI) visiting the European Union for the second or more times to obtain a multiple-entry Schengen visa.
Talks in Kuala Lumpur
Earlier on July 11, Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono and High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kai Kallas met on the sidelines of the ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference in Malaysia. In a press release issued by the Foreign Ministry in Jakarta on Friday, Sugiono welcomed the progress of the ongoing negotiations on a free trade agreement between the EU and several ASEAN member states, including Indonesia. The minister also highlighted the ongoing ASEAN-EU relations in other sectors, such as sustainable development and energy transition. However, he said that moving forward, unilateral moves that could harm ASEAN or the EU and do not reflect their relationship as strategic partners should be avoided. In particular, Sugiono criticized the European policy of "fighting Indonesian palm oil" which has seen the position of this major export category undermined by the EU's environmental requirements on deforestation and palm oil production.
"Bastille Day" in Indonesian
On July 14, President Prabowo arrived in Paris from Brussels, where, at the invitation of French President Emmanuel Macron, he will take part in the military parade on the Champs-Élysées in honor of Bastille Day (French National Day). Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto will be on the main stand together with the political and military leadership of France. For the first time, Indonesia sent its contingent to participate in a military parade. The Indonesian contingent consists of 500 military and police officers, as well as cadets from Indonesian military and police academies, who will open the parade in Paris. This visit is intended to emphasize the nature of the strategic and friendly relations between the two countries in the wake of Macron's visit to Jakarta on May 27-28, 2025.
Several ministers from the Red and White Cabinet are accompanying the President on his trip to France, including Defence Minister Shafri Shamsuddin, Commander-in-Chief of the Indonesian National Army Agus Subyanto, Minister of Investment and Processing Development Rosan Ruslani and Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia.
France is once again seeking to establish itself as the "go-to person for Indonesian affairs" and to promote closer integration of the EU and Indonesian economies, especially given Prabowo's recent successful and fruitful visits to the SPIEF and BRICS Summit. France is also keen to support Indonesia's accession to the OECD.
Balance of Power and Indonesian-European Cooperation
Against the backdrop of Trump's tariffs, it is extremely important for the Prabowo administration to have opportunities to diversify trade and maintain a political balance of power. The EU remains an important technological partner for Indonesia, and in some cases a military one (France), which allows it to avoid deepening interaction and dependence with the US, since Indonesia actively interacts with the "West" represented by the EU and it is difficult to accuse it of "anti-Western sentiments". The EU's presence in this equation also reduces the political costs of trade with a large geographical neighbor in the event of increased pressure from the US administration.
While BRICS and South-South cooperation meet Indonesia's global ambitions and ideas about a fair world order, giving it the opportunity for political maneuver in a friendly environment, the European track is more practically oriented and is designed to create greater economic and technological stability for Indonesia.
Indonesia is following its traditional but effective strategy of hedging risks, but Western countries also understand this and can certainly take steps to limit Indonesia’s strategic flexibility by imposing unfavorable terms of cooperation on it under the guise of broad agreements and advanced initiatives.
